The rising cost of attending four-year colleges and universities concerns students and parents across the nation, calling for an explanation and possible educational alternatives. One such alternative may be trade schools, which offer a shorter path from secondary education to the workforce. In deciding which post-graduation path to pursue, students (and their parents) may be interested in the rate of return to each of these options. Many estimates have arisen calculating the rate of return to a four-year degree, but comparatively little has been done for trade schools and short-term professional programs. This study is a preliminary attempt to fill this gap. I focus on beauty schools as a specified form of trade school, and compare tuition and early-career salaries from twenty-three beauty schools in the state of Washington to pre-calculated Washington averages for four-year universities. If the labor economy is operating at maximum efficiency, the rate of return for trade schools should be equal to that of four-year universities, i.e. the same benefit to cost ratio. An efficient labor market that includes beauty schools at a higher rate of return than four-year universities could indicate an occurence of social stigma, encouraging unprepared high school students into a longer program than would be economically efficient. The expected result would be an increase in students capitalizing on the program with the higher rate of return. While preliminary results suggest a higher rate of return for four-year programs, I plan to continue the study with expanded data sets.

From November 2015 through March 2016, the Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX) field campaign was conducted on the Olympic Peninsula to study how wintertime precipitation is modified as it passes over coastal mountains and to validate satellite-derived precipitation measurements from the U.S.-Japan Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. This project uses OLYMPEX data to explore the topographic effect on these Pacific frontal systems by examining cloud and precipitation structure on the leeward side (usually northeast) of the Olympic Mountains, where there is typically a minimum in precipitation relative to the windward side. While most research has focused on the structure of the windward side, this study uniquely examines the leeward side of the mountains. A radar managed by Environment and Climate Change Canada on Vancouver Island provided measurements of the vertical structure of the frontal systems over the northern Olympic Mountains, including intensity inferred from radar reflectivity. Using environmental data from NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis on the windward side (usually southwest) of the mountains, this study classifies the leeward radar data based on upstream synoptic conditions. It then examines the cloud and precipitation structure on the leeward side of the mountains in various atmospheric environments. Preliminary findings of this study reveal, for example, that the intensity of cloud systems on the leeward side is dependent on upstream stability. Locally, these findings will inform studies of snowpack and water supply as many reservoirs depend on precipitation that occurs on the leeward side. Outside of the Pacific Northwest, these findings can be applied to other midlatitude coastal mountain ranges on the west side of continents around the world.

A greater understanding of snow accumulation patterns in our mountains has proven critical in predicting water supply, preventing floods, forecasting avalanches, and generating hydropower. One way to improve this understanding is through study of the melting layer, or the layer within a cloud where falling snow and ice begin to melt into liquid during a precipitation event. The upper bound of the melting layer is the 0°C temperature level, and the lower bound the altitude at which snow has fully melted into rain. This project aims to improve understanding of the melting layer and its variation in thickness and elevation on the windward (southwest) versus leeward (northeast) side of the Olympic Mountain Range. Hypotheses are explored through the analysis of radar imagery on opposing sides of the mountain range, weather balloon profiles of temperature, wind and humidity, and ground observation data - including hourly temperature values from sites throughout the mountains. Results of these data are compared to snow and weather models and reanalysis products such as WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model), NARR (North American Regional Reanalysis) and ERA-Interim, to explore the predictability of melting layer behavior for use in hydrologic forecasting. Through analysis of preliminary results, the occurrence of a lower leeward melting level has been captured through vertical temperature profiles that reanalysis products failed to account for. One hypothesized process contributing to this melting layer variability could include the trapping of cold air at lower elevations from continental sources on the lee-side thus lowering the melting layer, and further altering the thickness of the melting layer as this trapped air mixes with the air modified over the windward slopes originating from the Pacific Ocean.

Prolonged wakefulness is the root cause of significant incidents and accidents across numerous shift-working industries. Laboratory research has indicated that exposure to short-wavelength (visibly blue) light enhances alertness and performance, and shifts circadian phase. The strategic use of short-wavelength light may be a suitable fatigue countermeasure to decrease the risk of accidents in demanding occupations. Despite many laboratory studies demonstrating the efficacy of blue light, little work has been done to investigate the translation of such strategies in an occupational setting, where workers are more likely to experience confounding factors that could dampen the effectiveness of lighting countermeasures. One area where lighting countermeasures could be useful is among pilots who must awaken early to begin flying in the early morning hours. Our research aims to investigate the efficacies of integrating fatigue countermeasures in time-sensitive operations to bolster work safety and performance. We conducted a randomized, cross-over study to determine whether blue-enriched lighting could be used to shift circadian phase and sleep, and improve performance among airline pilots working early shifts using 6-sulfatoxymelatonin (aMT6s) concentrations as a default for circadian cycle. Volunteer participants working for a short-haul airline completed a fixed-pattern design (FPD) roster schedule and aMT6s collection protocol outlined in the methods section. The aMT6s data were subjected to a best-fit cosinor analysis to determine the acrophase. Analyses are underway to determine whether circadian phase shifts occurred following the blue-enriched lighting condition.

Central Argentina in the lee of the Andes Mountains experiences some of the most intense thunderstorms on earth. These storms produce large hail, flash floods, and tornadoes, and adversely affect the people living in this region. The initiation, growth and hail production processes in these storms are poorly understood due to the lack of sufficient observations in this region. Currently, the only way to study the climatology of these events is through satellite remote sensing observations. This project examines spaceborne radar data from the Precipitation Radar (PR) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite for the November and December period for the years 1998-2013. The purpose of this project is to better understand the temporal and spatial evolution of these convective systems near the Sierras de Córdoba in the lee of the Andes. The PR radar observations from TRMM were classified into 4 categories: 1) deep convective cores; 2) wide convective cores; 3) intermediate convective cores; and 4) broad stratiform regions. These categories are based on the height, area, and reflectivity of the storms. Reflectivity is the signal reflected back to the radar by the hydrometeors. It was found that initiation and rapid upscale growth occur in the vicinity of the Sierras de Córdoba. These results are crucial for the planning and execution of the upcoming field campaign in Argentina called RELAMPAGO (Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations). Knowledge about how convective storms behave in Argentina applies to other regions, such as the lee of the Rocky Mountain in the United States. Another benefit of this study is that legacy computer code that was written in the IDL programming language is now updated to a more structured format with Python making it easily used for future research.

People all over the world use forecasts from various sources such as the National Weather Service, local TV/radio stations, or apps on smartphones for a variety of applications. Examples include preparing for routine activities, such as planning outdoor events, or preparing for rare, yet hazardous scenarios like a thunderstorm passage near a sporting event. The most common quantities of interest are maximum/minimum temperatures, wind speed, and rainfall (chance and amount). To approximate these quantities, weather information sources utilize forecasts made from numerical weather prediction models of which there are about ten used in the United States. Numerical models of the atmosphere consist of equations that describe the current state of the atmosphere and how it changes with time and location. These equations are solved on powerful computers as the number of calculations are immense. Using the information from these models, individual forecasts can be made. Atmospheric Science students at UW are practicing forecast techniques through participation in a national competition called WxChallenge—a contest where participants from various academic institutions predict these quantities for selected US cities. For help with forecasting, the UW team has developed a website that holds a suite of model information which easily analyzes and compares that data and assesses the skill of each individual model. This website, however, needs updates and improvements. Therefore, I am converting the existing system to an object-oriented format by creating Forecast objects for individual weather models. For example, I have written a Forecast object for the DarkSky weather model using Python code. This type of improvement will reduce redundant code and allow for future developments to be implemented with ease. I am confident that this updated system will help the UW team improve the accuracy of their forecasts.