Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) has become a critical framework for the adaptive management of marine conservation. MSP incorporates the entire ecosystem into management practices in order to sustain healthy fisheries as well as a thriving environment. The MSP process includes creating an optimal monitoring strategy in order to yield the most positive results for the well-being of the ecosystem. In my capstone I explored the importance of spatial and temporal trends for making effective monitoring strategies for adaptive management within the MSP framework. The research relied upon GIS (Geographic Information Systems), which is regarded as a vital tool for creating MSP strategies. In order to examine the effect of spatial zonation on management decisions I used copper rockfish (Sebastes caurinus) data from the San Juan Islands from 1994, 1999, and 2000. This data was used to create a map illustrating the influence different spatial zones have on the information management obtains in order to form adaptive management strategies. Furthermore, in order to investigate the effect of temporal binning on MSP I used killer whale (Orcinus orca) data from the same relative location from 1996-2001. I categorized the data into different periods, or "bins" of time, and analyzed how these bins impact management decisions. In both examples a threshold was created from the given data that would in theory trigger management action in order to quantitatively prove that the spatial and temporal way in which a species is monitored does affect regulatory and marine spatial planning decisions. Hopefully, by proving this statement with specific case studies I will also identify any consistent trends from the data that may be helpful in determining monitoring strategies to enhance marine spatial planning and conservation for those particular species in this region. ArcGIS will be used in order to illustrate the results and produce further geostatistics on the data.  

The San Juan Islands of Washington are a unique habitat for both humans and wildlife. Although geographically close to many urban cities, these islands remain relatively rural and have maintained close connections to wildlife. Marine and terrestrial wildlife are very different in their ecology and how humans perceive them. Yet, there are few distinctions between how marine and terrestrial wildlife is generally presented in educational materials for the public. The San Juan Islands are also home to a large, seasonal ecotourism industry. Consequently, there tends to be a high density of tourists in the area, particularly during the summer. I worked with Wolf Hollow Wildlife Rehabilitation Center in Friday Harbor, WA on San Juan Island to evaluate human interactions and attitudes regarding wildlife. For ten weeks I volunteered and used participant observation methods at the facility. I conducted eight semi-structured interviews ranging from 30 to 120 minutes to examine differences in human actions and attitudes towards terrestrial and marine wildlife, as well as any differences in attitude between visitors and residents of the islands. Initial results indicate that, unlike visitors, residents are more likely to view all wildlife as a nuisance. Moreover, marine animals tend to be more appreciated and less intentionally harmed by humans. Based on these findings I evaluated the current outreach materials used by Wolf Hollow and made recommendations for improvements, which included implementing new methods and materials in order to more effectively educate the public about how to live harmoniously with all types of wildlife.

The Short-tailed Albatross (Phoebastria albatrus) is listed as endangered under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA) due to small population size, and limited breeding range. The Short-tailed Albatross (STAL) breeds on Torishima and Minami-kojima Islands off Japan and migrates to Alaskan waters during the summer. The NOAA Alaska Fisheries Science Center’s Observer Program, in collaboration with the USFWS, instructs observers to carry out seabird monitoring activities in addition to their recording of bycatch during fishing operations. Using Observer Program seabird sightings and vessel-bird interaction data from 1993-2009, we examined potential vessel interaction threats to the recovery of the population, as well as the frequency and geographic expansion of Short-tailed Albatross sightings. Our data indicate that Short-tailed Albatross sightings increased more than the Short-tailed Albatross population during this time period (6.5% population growth per year), with observer days remaining relatively stable. We also found that incidences of discard feeding and/or vessel following are not increasing disproportionately to population size as the population continues to grow, thus it is unlikely that vessel interactions threaten the STAL population recovery. Lastly, we found that the sightings of Short-tailed Albatross show an eastward expansion since 1993, thus suggesting an expansion of this species within their historic range.

The effects of temperature and salinity on growth rates and toxicities of a dinoflagellate species in the genus Alexandrium will be determined. Species of Alexandrium can produce a suite of dangerous neurotoxins, the most potent being saxitoxin, that cause paralytic shellfish poisoning in humans if contaminated shellfish are consumed. These potentially lethal toxins are dangerous to humans and marine mammals alike. Toxins accumulate in both wild and farmed shellfish during a harmful algal bloom (HAB), and can result in shellfish harvesting closures causing economic losses to commercial shellfish growers. Climate change scenarios project increased freshwater input to the Puget Sound region (causing decreased salinity) and warming of surface waters. These changes were simulated in the laboratory using a temperature gradient bar – a cell culturing apparatus designed to facilitate cell growth over a range of uniformly distributed temperatures (5-28°C) and salinities (10, 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 ppt). Nutrient concentrations in the culture media is locally relevant and light is on a 12:12 h light:dark cycle. These experiments will be conducted for two Puget Sound isolates of Alexandrium collected in 2010 – one from Cypress Island in the north and one from Quartermaster Harbor in the south. Preliminary results for the northern Puget Sound isolate indicate zero to low growth at all temperatures for the 15 ppt salinity treatment, while greatest growth occurred between 15°C and 22°C in the 20 and 25 ppt salinity treatments. Toxin analyses are yet to be performed. The growth and toxicity response surfaces generated from this study will be used in a model to assess potential range and timing of future blooms under projected climate change scenarios.

With global temperature predicted to increase by 1-6 degrees C by 2100, the question of how species will adapt to such a rapidly changing environment is becoming increasingly urgent. Some of the most widely observed responses to climate change have been changes in phenology, or the timing of life-history events such as the timing of migration, flowering, or mating. These apparent adaptations may be the result of genetic evolution or plasticity, and while both can prevent a species from extirpation during rapid environmental shifts, they vary markedly in their long-term effects on population viability. The Pacific salmon, Oncorhynchus, are one group of organisms whose survival is intimately linked to climate conditions. Because salmon die after they spawn, their entire life cycle depends on the success of one spawning season, which in turn depends on their ability to migrate up rivers to spawn during months favorable to their survival. Even small increases in water temperature and flow rates can greatly increase pre-spawning mortality for these fish. Using existing knowledge of Chinook life-history and fine-scale climate projections for the Columbia River Basin, together with an eco-evolutionary model, we assess the potential for Chinook salmon to shift their migration timing to adapt to future climate change. We hypothesize that Chinook are likely to have the evolutionary potential to allow them to avoid spawning during the warmest times on a long-term scale. While this is reassuring for the survival of pacific salmon, in general the extent of adaptability will depend on the life-history of the organism of interest.

Currently, southern resident killer whales (Orcinus orca) comprise a population of eighty-seven individuals. It is believed that disturbance by vessels may affect key behaviors and mask echolocation, which is critical for foraging and communication. Within the Puget Sound, Southern Residents are exposed routinely to commercial whale watching, and vessel interaction has been listed as a contributing factor to their endangered status. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are currently implementing vessel guidelines to decrease anthropogenic influences on this population. Beginning in summer 2011 these federal laws came into affect. Understanding boater behavior on the water is essential for federal enforcement and revision of current laws. By working with Soundwatch, an organization that has been documenting vessel interactions for 18 years, I assisted in data collection, entry, and analyzing boater density and trends. In the summer of 2011 2,500 incidents were observed including violations of federal law and voluntary guidelines. The top incidents that were observed were being within 200 yards of a whale, being inshore of whales, and parking in their path. On average 12 vessels were surrounding this population on a daily basis, with the majority being whale watch boats. Private vessels, generally due to their irregularity on the water, do not generally know about the new federal law or guidelines. Resulting in private boats accounting for 58% of the observed incidents. In addition to assisting with data gathering and analyzing I will compare the 2011 results to 2010 report. Providing a summary of themes observed on the water and future recommendations for federal law revision. Moving forward it will be critical to enforce current laws, and understand the dynamics between vessels and whales. My project will provide a succinct summary of 2011 trends and compare them with previously observed boater interactions.